The Case for Messi's Ninth Ballon d'Or

After Lionel Messi scored two more stunners in Inter Miami's 3-1 win at Atlanta United, NBC Sports posed a question that sounded absurd — and then made it sound serious. Could the 39-year-old really win a ninth Ballon d'Or?

The Question Nobody Expected

"Why can't Lionel Messi win another Ballon d'Or?" That was the question NBC Sports put to its readers on October 18, following a fresh reminder of his magic: a pair of outright ridiculous goals for Inter Miami against Atlanta United on Saturday. The piece framed the debate plainly — would it be unreasonable for the 39-year-old to top this field of competitors?

On paper, the idea is easy to dismiss. His recent run of performances does not count for this season's award for the best men's soccer player, and MLS is not one of the top-five leagues in the world. But as NBC Sports argued, the 39-year-old is just decimating club opponents after driving Argentina to a World Cup final — and if you want to make an argument for Messi, you can certainly make a strong one.

The Numbers: 44 in 32

The raw production is where the argument starts. Per NBC Sports' count, Messi — in a year he turned 39 — has 29 goals and 15 assists in 32 appearances for Inter Miami, and has been kept out of the goal contributions column in only six appearances, four of which came before May. Those are, in the piece's words, stupid numbers at any age.

There is history within reach, too. The MLS single-season goals record stands at 34, and with three matches left, Carlos Vela's mark is not safe. Messi's brace at Atlanta was part of that surge: two goals in four second-half minutes, on top of his involvement in Inter Miami's opener, as the Herons won 3-1 for their third straight victory and climbed to 55 points.

The World Cup Trump Card

NBC Sports leans hardest on the tournament that has always carried huge weight in voting years. Messi scored or assisted in Argentina's first seven World Cup appearances before the 1-0 final loss to Spain, playing 90 minutes four times and 120 minutes three times, and scoring a goal in his only 30-minute cameo. His totals: eight goals and four assists, for 12 goal contributions — with Argentina scoring seven total goals in which he did not put his name on either the goal or assist line.

The details are striking. He scored all five of Argentina's goals in the first two games, earning himself that brief cameo against Jordan, and set up both goals against England in the semifinal — a 2-1 win confirmed by match data, with Messi providing both assists. The piece also folds in the emotional arc: this was the year Messi sealed his international career with the Benin farewell and dealt with a difficult personal summer, factors that have swayed voters toward romantic choices before.

The Field: Kane, Yamal and the Rest

None of this happens in a vacuum, and NBC Sports is honest about the competition. The field of challengers reads like this:

• Harry Kane: remains the favorite and, by the piece's own admission, deserves his favorite's seat — a first Ballon d'Or is within reach.
• Lamine Yamal: won a World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona, and came close to the honors last season.
• Rodri, Fabián Ruiz, Ousmane Dembélé, Pau Cubarsi: all have serious cases — including Ruiz's potential Champions League, Ligue 1 and World Cup treble.
• Kylian Mbappé: scored a lot of goals for club and country, as ever.

The betting markets agree with that hierarchy: according to Polymarket Sports, Kane leads with 54% of the market, Yamal holds 40%, and Messi sits third. Kane has, as the piece notes, done more than enough to earn the trophy, with sentimentality having pushed him from favorite to near-certainty — he likely could have won one earlier in his career.

The MLS Problem

The strongest objection is the league itself. Applying criticism to a home league in the Ballon d'Or debate is, as NBC Sports concedes, neither mean nor cheap — this award is meant to judge the top performer in the world, and the same skepticism would apply to astounding numbers in Belgium or Türkiye.

But the piece pushes back with a thought experiment: there is no fair mathematical way to weigh one league's contributions against another, so try a harsh metric. Halve Messi's output — something like 15-20 goals across all competitions with another 10 assists — and put that player at Paris Saint-Germain, Napoli or in the Bundesliga. Combined with an absurd World Cup, would voters push him to the podium? The implied answer is yes. And as the article adds with a smile: if Messi were doing this for Newell's Old Boys in Argentina, a segment of fans would bypass the criticism entirely — because the Argentine Primera División is not in the United States of America.

The Gala Looms, and So Does the Question

Time is short. The 70th edition of the Ballon d'Or ceremony takes place at the London Palladium Theatre on October 26, with proceedings starting at 8pm local time — moved from Paris this year to commemorate the award's 70th anniversary and the memory of Stanley Matthews, the first winner in 1956. Whether Messi will even be there is uncertain: Fabrizio Romano reported he has not been invited to present a trophy, and his attendance remains unconfirmed.

NBC Sports' own verdict is careful: Messi almost certainly won't win it — he has a bunch of them already — but it would not be an unfair award, and it would not be a surprise. After all, Kane's sentimentality case is accepted without question; Messi's is a career's worth of sentimentality among the voter base, which has boosted him to the top on eight previous occasions. It's unlikely — but, the piece asks, it wouldn't be a surprise, would it?

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